(Draft Business Case for the Cowes to Stony Point Car Ferry)
Yes, Phillip Island has a problem. No, in fact we have three!
That is just what the Draft Business Case document and its author is stating.
But no worries, a car ferry will fix all our woes!
So what are these three problems that Phillip Island is experiencing which a car ferry will fix?
In the Draft Business Case document produced by AECOM, the author suggests that Phillip Island is experiencing the following problems:
- Problem 1: A fragmented and seasonal view of tourist opportunities across the broader region forces visitors to select some destinations over others.
- Problem 2: Many residents are excluded from a range of social and economic opportunities, exacerbating regional disadvantage
- Problem 3: An isolated Phillip Island during incidents will impede emergency services ability to respond in an appropriate and timely manner.
If you have read the Draft Business Case document you may have noticed a reference to a concept called an Investment Logic Map.
This concept was created by Jerry Smart, a former Victorian State Government employee and is used to visually present the problems, solutions and the benefits as outlined in a business case document.
An Investment Logic Map and subsequent mapping documents are simply a summary of workshop discussions that are shown in a series of boxes and arrows.
Should you want to view the Investment Logic Map, it is in the first page of Appendix 1 of the Draft Business Case document.
We will likely refer to this mapping summary several times in this article.
Let’s start our analysis:
To begin, the Investment Logic Map suggests that the biggest problem to be solved by the car ferry is:
Problem 1: A fragmented and seasonal view of tourist opportunities across the broader region forces visitors to select some destinations over others
Problem 1a: Day Trippers
To start, the Draft Business Case document shows data that Phillip Island’s tourism numbers are increasing steadily since 2012. In some cases, this is as much as an average of 18% per year for international overnight visitors.
So then, where lies the problem?
The Draft Business Case document stated that Phillip Island has a high dependence on day trippers compared to other parts of regional Victoria.
There is a reason for this and a good one. Phillip Island is so close to Melbourne that it is an easy day trip destination. People can come for the day to enjoy our safe beaches, surf, or even do a bit of fishing, then comfortably return home the same day.
Then there are the endless convoys of tourist coaches arriving each day, year round. These make stops at some of Phillip Island’s various attractions, ending the day with a visit to the Penguin Parade.
A large percentage of homes on Phillip Island are holiday homes. They are owned by families who come to Phillip Island during the school holidays and sometimes remain several weeks at a time.
The overnight visitor count soars on Phillip Island during long weekends, public holidays and school holidays with others staying at their own private holiday homes.
Because of the close proximity to Melbourne and the suburbs, many families will use their holiday home on the weekends, or offer up their homes to friends or other family members.
However, the Draft Business Case has not taken these numbers into account in the calculation of the overnight visitation numbers and the visitation spend.
It also appears that when visitors do spend the night on Phillip Island, they spend on average more than they would have if staying in the Mornington Peninsula.
Then the Draft Business Case suggests that day trippers spend more visiting Phillip Island than they do when visiting the Mornington Peninsula for the day.
Interesting… Sounds like more of a problem for Mornington Peninsula than Phillip Island. Agree?
The Draft Business Case is also suggesting that we should be concerned that Victoria’s popular Great Ocean Road is stealing Phillip Island’s overnight visitors.
Let’s remind readers that the Great Ocean Road starts at Torquay, which is just over 100 kilometres from Melbourne. The Great Ocean Road then stretches 150 kilometres one way from Torquay to Allansford near Warrnambool, Victoria.
Doing some basic calculations, to take in the Great Ocean Road is not a day trip. From Melbourne return, this becomes a 500 kilometre round trip, travelling on some very winding (but very picturesque) country roads.
Therefore, this becomes a trip where a visitor would be required to factor in overnight accommodation in order to fully experience the Great Ocean Road.
Problem 1b: Seasonal Troughs
The Draft Business Case document stated that during the busy periods, especially summer, experiencing road congestion in both destinations, being Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island, provides a destination less desirable for day trippers. This means they spend less time at their destination and as a consequence, less money at each destination.
A quick reasonability test would make it obvious that spending an additional $120 for a round trip on a car ferry would put a big dent in any day tripper’s daily budget.
Phillip Inland is situated in an area of Western Port Bay, where during the winter period the weather is very unpredictable and often quite nasty. It is not unusual to have days on end of rain and numerous days of very rough seas and damaging winds.
Ask any resident living in the immediate area.
This results in visitors avoiding the area. Even those with a significant investment in a holiday home do not travel to the Island in these conditions.
Many forget that Phillip Island’s main recreational activities are all outdoors. Sailing, walking, hiking, fishing and activities on the beaches are all severely affected by weather conditions.
Phillip Island has popular Westernport tours such as the Eco Boat Tour and the Wildlife Coast Tours, both dependent on fair weather to depart, or run.
Surprisingly though, the Draft Business Case states that during the winter months ALL of regional Victoria experiences a drop in visitation similar in percentage to Phillip Island. Are they suggesting a car ferry would entice more people to travel around the rest of regional Victoria?
Doing a quick reasonability check would strongly suggest that a car ferry would not increase numbers to Phillip Island in the winter seasons and to do so would be misleading.
However, an interesting statement is made in the Draft Business Case.
It states, “…there is a need to disperse visitation in both regions, to reduce development and visitation pressure on some destinations (particularly Mornington Peninsula Shire).” (page 19 of the Draft Business Case Document)
Excuse me?
Phillip Island needs a car ferry in order to reduce the pressure experienced by the Mornington Peninsula Shire?
Would that not be a problem the Mornington Peninsula Shire needs to address?
Problem 1c: Touring Route
There seems to be a significant push by the Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism Board to have a Cowes to Stony Point Car Ferry. This group is arguably the greatest proponent of the car ferry.
Their push is to establish a Touring Route connecting Phillip Island to the Morning Peninsula and then on to the Great Ocean Road via the Sorrento Queenscliff ferry.
The Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism Board in its current structure was established in 2015 and its Chairman was appointed in 2016 being the Hon. John Pandazopoulos; formerly a Labor Minister for Tourism and still well connected with the current Victorian Labor Government.
His appointment to the Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism Board was done by the current Minister for Tourism and Major Events Hon. John Eren.
There are several skills based members appointed to the Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism Board. Each of the board member’s background can be reviewed on the Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism website; except for one… Greg Harrison, appointed to the board in 2016.
Greg Harrison is an Infrastructure Advisory Director at Arcadis, who has advised on a significant number of infrastructure projects in Victoria, including the Port of Hastings Port Development Strategy.
It should also be noted that prior to working with Arcadis, Greg Harrison was a director of AECOM, the author of the Draft Business Case document we are reviewing.
The General Manager of the Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism Board is Kim Storey.
Aside from being the General Manager of Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism Board, Kim also holds a position as a Board Member of Business Events Victoria and Deputy Chairperson for Go Beyond Melbourne, a State Government of Victoria tourism initiative.
Kim Storey is also a Steering Committee member for the Business Case relating to the Cowes to Stony Point car ferry.
In view of the many presentations and documents made on behalf of Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism by Kim Storey, the Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism Board can be looked upon as being the strongest advocates of the Cowes to Stoney Point Vehicle Ferry.
Published in various documents by the Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism Board, the Cowes to Stoney Point Car Ferry is presently a ‘high priority’ for the Regional Tourism Board.
It seems that the Destination Phillip Island Regional Tourism Board was established and restructured specifically to advance the Victorian’s State Government desire to build a Cowes to Stony Point Car Ferry.
Earlier we mentioned a Steering Committee. The Steering Committee is the overseeing body of representatives in the development of the Cowes to Stony Point Car Ferry Business Case.
The Chairperson for this Steering Committee is Bass Coast Shire’s Mayor Cr Pamela Rothfield.
The interesting aspect to this Steering Committee is that of the ten representatives, six represent the Victorian State Government and of those six, three are associated with the state government department Visit Victoria.
What is also interesting is that the car ferry is being put forward as a solution to road congestion and an extension to the Victorian road network and yet there are NO representatives on the Steering Committee from VicRoads.
In January 2018, VicRoads released a report named Phillip Island Road Infrastructure Planning. It is a summary of a study started in 2016 to investigate a range of opportunities to improve road safety, traffic efficiency and sustainability on Phillip Island.
The report does not suggest a car ferry as a solution to traffic congestion; in fact the report does not even mention a car ferry.
It is clear that it is those associated with tourism that are the proponents actively and aggressively pushing for the Cowes to Stony Point Car Ferry Business Case.
Returning to the previously mentioned Investment Logic Map, the next major problem to be solved by the car ferry is:
Problem 2: Many residents are excluded from a range of social and economic opportunities, exacerbating regional disadvantage
It is interesting how the author of the draft business case is suggesting that Phillip Island is a socially and economically disadvantaged community and those individuals that are deemed disadvantaged will find a solution to their dilemma by a utilising a car ferry service from Cowes to Stony Point.
They suggest this by stating in the Draft Business case:
“Phillip Island, with only one road connection to the mainland, combined with the effects of seasonal business cycles results in instances of social and economic disadvantage for residents. In particular, Phillip Island residents lack access to jobs and various services and amenities that are more accessible to residents of Mornington Peninsula, which has a larger population and convenient access to Melbourne via road and train. These could include health care, secondary and tertiary education opportunities.”
Quoted from Draft Business Case
This is a terribly weak argument used to endorse the existence of a car ferry.
Previously in this article we addressed the seasonal aspect to the business cycles in Phillip Island (relating to tourism).
What does not make sense is how the author of this Draft Business Case document can suggest that Phillip Island’s socially and economically disadvantaged will be greatly assisted by taking a car ferry to work in Melbourne, or students to attend school, TAFE or university.
Let’s look how unreasonable this viewpoint is.
If a person is working in Melbourne, he or she would travel on the numerous highways or freeways that are nowhere near Mornington Peninsula without spending $120 a day to get to work. Even if he or she had a job somewhere within the Mornington Peninsula, would it be reasonable to think that the employee would spend $120 per day getting to and from work?
Let’s do a quick calculation to discern the costs they would incur if they did so. This would total $2,400 per month, or $28,800 per year.
One wonders how this could possibly be a solution for those socially or economically disadvantaged souls residing on Phillip Island?
However, these individuals may have such high paying jobs that such an expense is irrelevant. Therefore, they are not really socially or economically disadvantaged. Wouldn’t you agree?
You can also apply the same reasonability test in regard to students, or trainees. However in many cases, students or trainees would not use cars. Instead they would most likely use the more affordable coach service from the Island, or the passenger ferry to Stony Point and then the Metro train at a fraction of the $120 return cost per day for a car ferry.
With regards health services, travelling to Melbourne for health care treatments would not require a car ferry. Again, a person would take the numerous highways or freeways that are nowhere near Mornington Peninsula and not spend an extra $120 a day to get to their health care appointment.
However, if the person’s health care professional is somewhere within the Mornington Peninsula, they would need to decide that a $120 car ferry fee is worth the cost when a car trip takes basically the same amount of time.
The author of the Draft Business Case document goes on to say:
“The Western Port side of Mornington Peninsula Shire, clustered around Hastings, is isolated from the main visitor areas of the Shire, and is therefore missing out on economic opportunities resulting from tourism growth.”
Quoted from Draft Business Case
It is safe to assume that Phillip Island residents would consider this a Mornington Peninsula Shire problem.
It is quite amazing that the Mornington Peninsula Shire has not invested in water wildlife tours from Stony Point, set up a sailing club, fishing marina or other attractions to uplift the visitation to the Western Port side of Mornington Peninsula Shire. Rather, it seems that the Western Port side of Mornington Peninsula Shire is set to remain an industrial environment.
This is likely to remain that way, even if there was a car ferry.
Let’s take one final look at the previously mentioned Investment Logic Map. The final problem to be solved by the car ferry is:
Problem 3: An isolated Phillip Island during incidents will impede emergency services ability to respond in an appropriate and timely manner
It would be fair to say that most, if not all people reading this article have been at one time or another inconveniently delayed on the Monash Freeway, or any highway for that matter. They have been grid locked because of an unfortunate event, such as a vehicle accident.
Phillip Island has indeed experienced some those unfortunate incidents in the past.
The author mentioned three examples of this, and we are not completely convinced they actually support the development of a car ferry.
Remember, Problem 3 is presenting the view that emergency service’s ability to respond in an appropriate and timely manner are impeded because of access to Phillip Island.
In all three examples, the accident victims were reached in a timely and very appropriate manner using helicopters and ambulances. There was no mention that the emergency services attending the accident and the treatment the victims received would have been improved by the use of a car ferry from Cowes to Stony Point.
Also, the examples used by the author of the Draft Business Case document showed that the traffic delays were primarily cars trying to either get onto, or off of the Island. However, they neglected to mention that many of those cars would likely have also been travelling to Wonthaggi, Inverlock or Wilsons Promontory and were also held up by the congestion at the by-pass.
A car ferry could not relieve a significant amount of the congestion as outlined in those examples.
For two reasons, first those intending on coming on to the Island would have had to make a U-turn, drive to Stony Point and taken the car ferry. If everyone in the gridlock had attempted to do so, there would have been significant traffic getting to the ferry terminal and delays at the ferry, considering the car ferry capacity is 30 vehicles.
Secondly, it would be unreasonable to think that all those cars held up in traffic were coming from Melbourne via Mornington Peninsula. Using the extreme example, traffic backed up 15 kilometres equates to approximately 3000 cars (single lane), or 1500 cars dual lane.
Let’s say that the congestion is relieved by 750 cars who want to board the car ferry.
At 30 cars per trip, it would take 25 sailings and at 5 a day (one way). That would equate to upwards of 5 days duration of trips for those that want to avoid a few hours of traffic congestion.
Okay, maybe that’s a BIT ambitious! Let’s cut it down to 100 cars.
That would only involve 4 sailings (one way) and would equate to almost full capacity for most of the day, which would do very little to relieve the complete issue of traffic congestion as per those examples.
So the reasonability test itself denounces the concept of using the car ferry as a viable method of addressing serious traffic congestion.
Now let’s just touch on the subject of being stranded on the island because of a road incident. There is a short stretch of approximately 1800 metres of road between the Cape Woolamai corner turnoff and just past the Forrest Cave entry where side streets from which traffic and can be diverted, or detoured do not exist.
All other stretches of the Phillip Island Road provide side streets that traffic can be diverted through.
As we mentioned earlier, January 2018, VicRoads released a report named Phillip Island Road Infrastructure Planning. The report does not suggest a car ferry as a solution to traffic congestion; in fact, the report does not even mention the concept of a car ferry.
There is a report mentioned in the Draft Business Case called the Phillip Island Integrated Transport Study.
They had used this report as support for the car ferry Business Case.
The car ferry is only mentioned briefly in the report and the consultant’s recommendations as to how to improve Phillip Island’s road infrastructure did not even mention a car ferry.
The Draft Business Case document also suggests that a car ferry would be used to evacuate those off the Island in extreme weather conditions. Using the reasonability test, as well as common sense, it is highly unlikely that any ferry, car or passenger, would be operating in extreme weather conditions.
Luckily for Phillip Island, across the bay is a large Australian Naval Base – HMAS Cerberus. In major disasters we can be confident that the Australian Defence Forces would mobilise their assets to assist in an evacuation off the island if required.
Heads Up
On March 10 at 7:30 PM, there is a public meeting being held by the Phillip Island Conservation Society and the topic is the proposed Cowes to Phillip Island car ferry.
It is to be held at the St Philips Parish Hall (cnr Thompson Avenue and Church Street). Everyone is encouraged to attend.
There is also a rally being organised by the Save Our Beaches Committee on March 11, time and place to be advertised.